Germany And The United States Economic Analysis

​ In the last two months on a series of weaker than expected U.S. economic data is a major blow to the confidence of overseas investors, and to Germany, led by the performance of euro-zone data are beautiful, thus, many analysts tend to believe that Beanke loose monetary policy, it is useless, the global economy, the second decline is inevitable, while the European response to the economic crisis may be the model should be taken as the head of Europe and America,horse be superior to one's opponent, the policy orientation more sophisticated.

However, the data between Europe and America this month, the performance of Queshi challenged such judgments. The last two weeks released revised U.S. second quarter GDP, ISM manufacturing index for the first time jobless claims, trade and wholesale accounts, etc., a substantial number of data better than expected, indicating the possibility of weakening of the U.S. double dip . In contrast, the German-led European economies, economic data has emerged a significant decline, last Tuesday announced the German manufacturing orders in July fell 2.2% monthly rate, announced Wednesday, after 7 adjusted exports rose by 1.5 month rate of decline %, coupled with renewed focus after the pressure test in the European banking industry concealed the existence of false issues to the euro, led by the weight of this non-US currencies.

Since July the European economic data from the well in the U.S. and Europe can not prove better than the U.S. economic situation is also impossible to explain the European countries led by Germany proper policy response, because this is just due to the time difference in the formation. Since last March, the global economy as the engine of the Asia-Pacific region, the U.S. economy rebounded from the trough, and ultimately to the European economic recovery, but this down, is led by China, Asia-Pacific countries have begun to self-adjust the initial impact to the U.S. economic performance, and ultimately reflect on the European economic data, in this chain reaction among the final impact on Europe was a part of its economic data after the still weak Strong Tendency in the U.S., but the result is a transient , and after a brief high, since the United States and Asia's economic downtu, the subsequent decline in economic data is difficult to avoid.

The European Central Bank's response to the economic crisis the way, also did not have much genius. Although compared to the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank cut interest rates and quantitative easing in the issue of holding a relatively strong position, this can not explain the response program is correct, but only reflect the great differences within Europe. Indeed, the German economy, led by strong fear of inflation has been on these two points and weak economies in Europe have a profound contradiction between, and monetary policy and economic development of the mismatch between entities, nor is this the vulnerable countries in Europe for half a year a major outbreak of the crisis of sovereign debt an important reason, and the stability of the euro triggered a deep investor conces. Although since then hesitated again and again in Germany or Greece and other countries to make debt credit endorsement, coupled with the European banking sector after stress testing, the euro eased the crisis, but that does not and can not solve the contradiction between the nature of the euro area, once their further weakening of economic data, conces the issue afresh for suppressing the confidence of investors in the euro zone.

While Germany had good economic data in the United States, but a detailed analysis, which Merkel's policies than Obama not because of one's opponent. The origin of the current round of economic crisis in the United States, in the real estate market continues to weaken, the financial markets in turmoil, the unemployment rate substantially higher background, the Obama economic difficulties facing the govement is far more difficult Bimokeer, Democratic Republic of the two political disputes between the party makes the development of the economic stimulus could not quickly adopted, not to mention the immediate effects of their due. Federal Reserve to take the quantitative easing policy, to ease the financial strain of the global financial markets has very important significance, but also indirectly makes the quantitative easing would not have to euro area is too large, can the United States from Asia and among the benefits of economic recovery. In addition, as export-oriented country, Germany, the euro benefited from the rapid depreciation of the economic crisis, and this year the Brass Faucets Suppliers debt crisis in Europe caused the euro issue from escalating rapidly lower non-US currency, for the German speaking is hurt. Thus, the German economic data prior to performing well in August, to a certain extent is dependent on the United States and the Asia Pacific Economic recovery and squeeze the results of other frateal countries of Europe, rather than the so-called Merkel to reduce financial costs and out economic stimulus the real role of policy. Once the Asia-Pacific and the U.S. economic downtu and period of time after the stretching, you can clearly see that the German economic data showing weak successor.

Of course, we can not say that the current rebound in U.S. economic data, finds expression in a recession that can completely eliminate the possibility of secondary, after all this is in some degree Huo Xu Ren Shi Yin Wei had economists and the markets fall further Liao Qi of the United States economic outlook expected results. But the U.S. govement should look at the second step of the economic downtu, we have reason to believe that Beanke and the measures taken by the Obama administration would be more effective, would be more effective. In contrast, Germany will next face the problem more clearly, if the Merkel govement to continue its withdrawal from the economic stimulus plan position, then Germany is facing, the more likely a series of poor export and employment data, and the market will More start talking about the crisis in the euro zone, the euro will face greater market pressures. The short term, this may temporarily help the German 的 exports, But in the long, once the euro boosted the confidence of Wu Fa, Zai Southe Greece Deng Guo Jia You Zhao deep involvement of the debt on the German banking industry will unavoidably be faced Yanlidaji. Then, Germany and its supporters will find the policy, because they unduly from the current economic environment, given the constraints of their previous decision was how bad.